Chapter 4
Forecasting Weather Elements

Cloudiness, precipitation, and temperature are among the most important elements of any weather forecast. Cloudiness and precipitation may be subdivided into two main categories: 

  • occurrences associated with frontal activity

  • occurrences in air masses not associated with fronts.

There are many factors that influence the daily heating and cooling of the atmosphere. Some of these factors are

  • cloudiness,

  • humidity, 

  • nature of the undelying surface,

  • surface winds,

  • latitude, 

  • and the vertical temperature lapse rate.

Cloudiness is quite obvious in its influence on heat gain at the earth's surface during daylight hours, and also heat loss due to radiational cooling at night.
This chapter discusses the forecasting of middle and upper cloudiness, precipitation, and local temperature. The forecasting of convective clouds and associated precipitation, along with fog and stratus is covered in chapter 5 of this manual.

4.1

CONDENSATION AND PRECIPITATION PRODUCING PROCESSES

LEARNING OBJECTIVES:
Evaluate the processes necessary for condensation and precipitation to occur.
We will begin our discussion by identifying the conditions that must be present for condensation and precipitation to take place

4.2

WEATHER DISSIPATION PROCESSES

LEARNING OBJECTIVES: 
Identify processes leading to the dissipation of weather.

4.3

FORECASTING FRONTAL CLOUDS AND WEATHER

LEARNING OBJECTIVES:
Evaluate surface and upper level synoptic data in the analysis of frontal clouds and weather.

4.4

SHORT-RANGE EXTRAPOLATION

LEARNING OBJECTIVES:
Compare short-range extrapolation techniques for the movement of frontal systems and associated weather.

4.5

CLOUD ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING

LEARNING OBJECTIVES:
Recognize upper air data and its value in forecasting. Recognize moisture features aloft and their significance to the forecaster.

4.6

PREDICTION OF SNOW VS RAIN

LEARNING OBJECTIVES:
Evaluate the surface and upper-level synoptic situations in determining the form of precipitation in your forecast.

4.7

TEMPERATURE

LEARNING OBJECTIVES:
Analyze synoptic features in determining temperature forecasts. Temperature ranks among the most important forecast elements. Temperatures are not only important in the planning and execution of operational exercises, but also are of keen interest to all of us in everyday life.

4.8

SUMMARY

 

 

 

Questa pagina è stata realizzata da Vittorio Villasmunta

Ultimo aggiornamento: 06/01/15